TEL AVIV — If Iran had hoped its neighbors would rise to its defense in the wake ofunprecedented American and Israeliattacks, that moment may have passed. On Monday, Iran fired back at the U.S. with astrike on the American Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, in what is already being seen as merely a face-saving gesture. Qatar said it had intercepted the Iranian missiles and condemned the attack, calling it a violation of its sovereignty. But even as Middle Eastern leaders were quick to criticizePresident Donald Trump's paradigm-shifting assault on Iranfollowing 10 days ofIsraeli bombardment, the American strikes are likely to be accepted — and even privately cheered — by an Arab officialdom that has long seen Shia Iran as the primary threat to regional stability. "These countries are quietly delighted to see Iran cut down to size," said Firas Maksad, the managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at the Eurasia Group. "But the primary objective is to guard against blowback targeting them." Statements from the governments of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, for example, have stoppedshort of condemning the U.S. attackson Iranian nuclear facilities, instead only issuing expressions of concern over an expanding regional conflict. The statement from Qatar and theUnited Arab Emiratesdidn't even mention the United States by name. The most recent comments contrast with the countries'strong condemnationsof Israel's attacks on Iran over the past 10 days. "It speaks volumes about how they are very careful not to cross President Trump," Maksad said. "But also a deep desire to continue to play facilitator and mediator." For generations, Iran has cultivated powerful proxy organizations throughout the Middle East, such asHezbollah in Lebanon, theHouthis in Yemen, militant groups in Iraq and the regime ofBashar al-Assad in Syria, whose focus on threateningIsraelhave promoted instability in their unwitting host countries. The Islamic Republic's oft-stated ambition to "export" its 1979 Islamic Revolution has long worried its neighbors, particularly those whose populations include sizable Shia minorities who have long felt aggrieved by the region's mostly Sunni Muslim leaders. The Arab-Iranian cold war has been a primary factor behind Israel's increasing diplomatic coziness with its Arab neighbors, who have largely shelved generations of anger against the Jewish state in order to check Iranian power. Trump's signature foreign policy achievement of his first term, theAbraham Accordsthat normalized Israeli diplomatic relations with several Middle Eastern countries, was born from Gulf Arab governments' mounting anxiety over expanding Iranian influence. SinceHamas, also an Iranian proxy, attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has virtually destroyed nearly all of those groups aligned with Iran, neutering the primary threat against the Jewish state. TheSyrian regime of Bashar Al Assad, which Iran helped to prop up during its decade-long civil war, was overthrown late last year. The regional view of Iranian influence already played out in miniature in Lebanon. Israel's highly destructive dismantling of Iranian influence in Lebanon was quietly welcomed by those outside the group's base of Shiite supporters even as Lebanese leaders continued to publicly oppose Israel and champion the Palestinian cause. Lebanese Hezbollah, a militant group that was lavishly financed and started in part by the Islamic Republic, has not publicly committed to involve itself in this latest escalation between Israel and Iran. A statement from Hezbollah on Sunday night praised its patron state's courage and resilience, while making subtly clear that Iran will have to stand on its own. "[Iran is] capable of confronting this aggression and delivering a bitter defeat to the American and Zionist enemy," the statement read. Over the past year, Iran watched from the sidelines as Israel overran Hezbollah's power base in southern Lebanon, assassinated most of the group's leaders, destroyed its painstakingly built military infrastructure and killed thousands of Lebanese civilians. Hezbollah "very much feel that they paid an extremely high price in the last round of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel," Maksad said. "Iran was nowhere to be seen. So there's this very strong sentiment, including among Lebanese Shia, that Iran abandoned them at their time of need." Syria's new leader, Ahmad al-Sharaaousted the Iran-backed Assad regime last year and has since made public entreaties to the Trump administration and even signalled a willingness to ease tensions with Israel. The main concern for Arab leaders in the short term is that Iran could decide to retaliate against them or the huge American military installations they host. Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, who helped coordinate Iran and Gulf affairs at Israel's National Security Council, said he expects Iran to execute a "face-saving" response similar to its retaliation after the Trump administration assassinatedIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Soleimani,in 2020. Days after the U.S. killed Soleimani in Iraq with a drone strike, Iran fired ballistic missiles at two American bases in Iraq that left 110 service members with traumatic brain injuries. An Iranian attack on America's monied Gulf Arab allies could also risk drawing the U.S.further into a Middle East war, as Arab states may expect the U.S. to defend them, he said. "If something happens, they expect the U.S. to safeguard their security," Guzansky said. Top of mind will be attacks by theIran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on a Saudi energy facilityin 2019. Though the Houthis claimed responsibility, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for the drone attack that killed four civilians and briefly shut down operations at the enormous Saudi Aramco facilities at Abqaiq. Arab leaders' assessment could also change sharply if the U.S. decides to pursueregime change in Iran. Some of the richest Gulf Arab countries, such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, will worry that the destabilizing effects of a heavy-handed regime change could stir their own sizable and restive Shia Muslim populations. "They don't like this regime but they fear a chaotic and even worse regime," Guzansky said of Gulf Arab leaders. Iran is "not that stable but the regime has not collapsed. Iran is like a wounded lion. For the Gulf states, that's dangerous."